How does age affect baseline screening mammography performance measures? A decision model

Table 4 Screening mammography BCSC performance data.*

AGE	42.5	45	47.5	52.5	55	57.5	62.5
BCSC CANCER RATE/1000, 9–15 Months^†	2.25		2.98	3.66		4.44	5.08
Percent of model input incidence^‡	144		117	109		104	103
BCSC CANCER RATE/1000, No Previous^§	2.49		4.39	5.73		9.99	10.64
Percent of model input prevalence^‡ (high-low)	77 (67–86)		72 (63–83)	59 (51–70)		69 (58–83)	55
BCSC CANCER DETECTION RATE/1000	2.00	3.40^\|\|	3.75	5.11	8.36^\|\|	9.32	9.55
% 1 year sensitivity	75	94	75	57	76	70	55
% 2 year sensitivity	102	128	102	78	103	94	75
BCSC RECALL RATE/1000^¶	123	143^\|\|	149	151	156^\|\|	147	132
Percent of model	86	99	103	102	104	96	85
BCSC PPVS**, %	1.6	2.0^\|\|	2.5	3.3	4.9^\|\|	6.3	7.2
Percent of model	86	80	73	55	67	72	65

* Data available at Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) website using screening examinations from 1996–2005.[32]
^† Months since previous mammography.[26]
^‡ Prevalence and incidence rates are taken from Table 1.
^§ No previous mammography or first mammography.[26]
^|| Published performance data for 40–49 and 50–59 age groups.[25]
^¶ Recall for diagnostic imaging occurs within 90 days after the initial screening exam.
** Positive predictive value of a screening mammogram, which arithmetically equals the cancer detection rate/recall rate.[26]

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