Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

Table 3 Comparison between actual numbers of PCIs and forecast numbers (1995–1999) based on the standard Mean and Linear extrapolation methods as well as selected modifications of these

Sex	Age Group	Actual PCI	Forecast under mean method	Forecast under modified mean method (Model 1)	Forecast under further modified mean method (Model 2)	Forecast under final modified mean method (Model 5)	Forecast under linear method	Forecast under modified linear method (Model 3)	Forecast under further modified linear method (Model 4)
Male	35–39	233	204	210	190	236	251	243	241
Male	40–44	412	423	424	401	492	554	527	526
Male	45–49	730	697	696	659	817	934	889	893
Male	50–54	788	800	807	754	917	1032	1008	1014
Male	55–59	909	819	824	779	950	1084	1013	1014
Male	60–64	888	762	767	717	880	1069	994	994
Male	65–69	878	662	665	632	769	1064	988	991
Male	70–74	716	414	417	393	477	745	694	698
Male	75–79	260	153	153	146	177	261	259	262
Male	All	5814	4934	4963	4671	5715	6994	6615	6633
Female	35–39	24	19	21	20	23	26	26	25
Female	40–44	81	61	63	64	69	58	56	56
Female	45–49	119	134	136	138	148	135	129	128
Female	50–54	189	178	185	213	201	215	199	199
Female	55–59	250	221	230	222	249	285	262	260
Female	60–64	338	279	289	281	315	341	324	319
Female	65–69	381	326	339	329	364	436	411	414
Female	70–74	348	274	284	258	293	397	377	375
Female	75–79	197	129	136	122	134	219	205	205
Female	All	1927	1621	1683	1647	1796	2112	1989	1981
Total		7741	6555	6646	6318	7511	9106	8604	8614
% change from actual			-15.3	-14.1	-18.4	-3.0	17.6	11.1	11.3
GOF			494.11	455.09	643.38	265.37	265.03	155.37	159.38

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