Table 1 Mean percent of outbreak signals detected by six aberration detection algorithms, tested on four baseline syndromes, at an alert rate of 0.01
From: A simulation study comparing aberration detection algorithms for syndromic surveillance
Syndrome: | C1 | C2 | C3 | GLM | EWMA 0.4 | EWMA 0.9 | F value | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pneumonia hospitalizations (mean 2 visits per day) | Mean | 62.0% | 69.3% | 72.0% | 85.3% | 80.5% | 79.6% | 24.94 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI* | 58.3% | 65.8% | 68.6% | 82.5% | 77.2% | 76.3% | |||
Upper CI | 65.8% | 72.9% | 75.5% | 88.0% | 83.9% | 82.9% | |||
Asthma visits (mean 10 visits per day) | Mean | 35.4% | 52.2% | 48.8% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 57.7% | 36.63 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 31.7% | 48.5% | 45.1% | 66.5% | 48.6% | 53.9% | |||
Upper CI | 39.0% | 56.0% | 52.5% | 73.4% | 56.0% | 61.5% | |||
Influenza-like illness visits (mean 35 visits per day) | Mean | 21.2% | 17.9% | 11.1% | 34.4% | 19.0% | 28.2% | 84.08 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 19.6% | 16.5% | 10.4% | 31.9% | 17.4% | 26.0% | |||
Upper CI | 22.9% | 19.2% | 11.9% | 36.9% | 20.5% | 30.4% | |||
Respiratory visits (mean 60 visits per day) | Mean | 16.4% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 27.8% | 13.3% | 15.7% | 84.90 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 15.1% | 16.0% | 10.3% | 25.7% | 12.5% | 14.5% | |||
Upper CI | 17.6% | 18.3% | 11.4% | 29.8% | 14.0% | 16.9% | |||
F value | 205.58 | 349.50 | 531.70 | 398.73 | 550.30 | 406.76 | |||
p-value | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | |||