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Table 3 Alarm rates for extra visits that are not characterized by geographic clustering.

From: Real time spatial cluster detection using interpoint distances among precise patient locations

  

Percent of simulated outbreaks that exceeded a threshold

Alarm strategy

# extra visits per week

All seasons

Winter

Spring

Summer

Fall

N > 95th percentile

10

6.41

23.68

0.00

0.00

2.56

Overall rate = 8.76

25

8.97

34.21

0.00

0.00

2.56

 

40

10.90

42.11

0.00

0.00

2.56

N > 95th percentile, by season

10

9.62

7.89

12.50

10.26

7.69

Overall rate = 16.24

25

14.74

10.53

20.00

15.38

12.82

 

40

24.36

15.79

32.50

33.33

15.38

M > 95th percentile

10

3.21

0.00

0.00

12.82

0.00

Overall rate = 2.14

25

3.21

0.00

2.50

10.26

0.00

 

40

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

M > 95th percentile, by season

10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Overall rate = 0

25

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 

40

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

MN > 95th percentile

10

4.49

2.63

2.50

12.82

0.00

Overall rate = 3.42

25

5.13

5.26

5.00

5.13

5.13

 

40

0.64

2.63

0.00

0.00

0.00

N and MN rules

10

7.69

26.32

2.50

0.00

2.56

Overall rate = 7.48

25

7.05

21.05

2.50

0.00

5.13

 

40

7.69

23.68

5.00

0.00

2.56

  1. Overall rate is percent positive alarms, regardless of number of extra visits and season. Strategies that only considered N were expected to yield alarm rates greater than the false positive rate of 5% because extra visits were added. Strategies that considered the spatial distribution were expected to yield alarm rates near 5% because the extra visits were not spatially clustered.